Krakens Cove

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One of its investigations concerns a specific globally renowned brand. Madsen says an initial scan identified around 1,600 domains, followed by another roughly 4,500 associated with this operator. That puts the number identified so far at around 6,000, although he believes the actual figure is considerably higher. “I think what we’ve found so far is only a small part of the overall picture,” he says. “I’m almost certain the real number is at least twice as high.”

Euromat’s report has suggested that a core group of 25 offshore operators are generating up to 64% of European traffic to the black market.

Madsen says investigators can also examine how sites appear from different jurisdictions. If a site is presented in a country’s local language, for example, that can indicate that the market is being targeted. The next question is whether the operator has the necessary licence.

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Earlier this year, Entain reported it would be cutting 500 roles globally across operations and its central functions, it insisted it was not a reaction to the earlier increase in RGD, but rather part of new CFO Michael Snape’s restructuring and cost cutting exercise.

Entain said at the time: “As part of our ongoing focus on enhancing Entain’s operational efficiency and agility, we have begun implementing organisational changes which will regrettably impact a number of roles across the group over the months ahead.”  

Entain cut down its Ladbrokes retail estate in Ireland by over a third in April, amid reports it had withdrawn from discussions to sell its entire Ladbrokes retail estate in the market.

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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.