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Beyond offering crypto payment solutions, a number of black market operators are licensed in “light touch” offshore jurisidictions which use opaque offshore operating structures to help to obscure company ownership and make local enforcement against these companies complex, the report noted.

By comparison, the long tail of smaller black market sites rely heavily on affiliates to generate traffic.

Much of the onus for the increasing black market is put on increasingly restrictive policies enforced by regulators across the licensed sector.

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“The gaming industry operates in a highly competitive talent market, particularly for digital, technology, data, AI and product roles,” he says.

Skinner also says perceptions of the industry can hinder recruitment.

“Many talented individuals simply don’t understand the breadth of careers available in gaming and lotteries, while others have preconceived views about the sector itself,” he continues.

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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.